The global pandemic of the Corona Virus has changed the way mankind lives and thinks. The financial market faced the biggest crisis as the economic activities around the globe shut down. Amidst COVID-19 pandemic, all the activities in Nepal are not intact.
The situation is much more than sudden chaos- investors are not aware of the direction of the market once the pandemic is over. Every sector of the national economy is in agony, it is almost impossible to calculate the economic loss of this strife in a different sector. And the worst, no one knows when or how the pandemic is going to end. A deep understanding of the market in such a situation might help to guess the condition of the market after the pandemic.
Stock Market After Pandemic
The baseline forecast expects the drop of global GDP by 5.2% in 2020. The market exchange rate will also be affected by the deepest recession in decades. Nepal Stock Exchange(NEPSE) completely closed its transactions on the 22nd of March. After that, both online and physical buying and selling of transactions have stopped. The last transaction showed a total turnover of Rs.194 million – index vaulting around 1250. As many Gulf countries’ are planning to send Nepalese workers back home, the flow of remittance is expected to decrease. Although remittance money does not make a huge share in the stock market, the shock can be felt.
Travel and Tourism Market
The national plan for ‘Visit Nepal 2020’ faced the biggest hit due to the Corona Virus pandemic. All the preparations were useless and the tourism/hotel industry is likely to face the aftershocks of this pandemic. Hopefully, the sector will bounce back sooner. The revenues from domestic tourists (over 60%) are likely to overcome soon after the pandemic is over. Global tourism is also expected to be flourishing at the end of 2020.
In the dark shadow of the Coronavirus pandemic, the Digital Market has found a way to flourish. The customer behavior of the ‘Go-to-market’ has seen some changes. In the period of lock-down, Companies are trying to make a stronger physical presence. Digital marketing has started to rise after the shift of lock-down by the government. As the post-pandemic market demands a new approach to marketing, the digital marketing of Nepal is expected to flourish.
To be truthful, there is no straightforward way we can predict the market after this pandemic. All we know is that the shock is huge but will soon recover after the pandemic is over. The manufacturing industry will be the first to recover, and the stock market will not decline severely. But the direction of the market can experience some changes- some shift towards the digital market will be seen. Of course, we will observe some upheavals in the beginning but hope that it will not last long.
The central bank can overcome such anomalies with the right plan, and the liquidity of the market can be maintained. As the government comes up with stimulus packages on the federal budget, the economy can be back in the track.